Yield Forecasting of Spring Maize Using Remote Sensing and Crop Modeling in Faisalabad-Punjab Pakistan

Real time, accurate and reliable estimation of maize yield is valuable to policy makers in decision making. The current study was planned for yield estimation of spring maize using remote sensing and crop modeling. In crop modeling, the CERES-Maize model was calibrated and evaluated with the field experiment data and after calibration and evaluation, this model was used to forecast maize yield. A Field survey of 64 farm was also conducted in Faisalabad to collect data on initial field conditions and crop management data. These data were used to forecast maize yield using crop model at farmers’ field. While in remote sensing, peak season Landsat 8 images were classified for landcover classification using machine learning algorithm. After classification, time series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land surface temperature (LST) of the surveyed 64 farms were calculated. Principle component analysis were run to correlate the indicators with maize yield. The selected LSTs and NDVIs were used to develop yield forecasting equations using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Calibrated and evaluated results of CERES-Maize showed the mean absolute % error (MAPE) of 0.35–6.71% for all recorded variables. In remote sensing all machine learning algorithms showed the accuracy greater the 90%, however support vector machine (SVM-radial basis) showed the higher accuracy of 97%, that was used for classification of maize area. The accuracy of area estimated through SVM-radial basis was 91%, when validated with crop reporting service. Yield forecasting results of crop model were precise with RMSE of 255 kg ha^?1, while remote sensing showed the RMSE of 397 kg ha^?1. Overall strength of relationship between estimated and actual grain yields were good with R² of 0.94 in both techniques. For regional yield forecasting remote sensing could be used due greater advantages of less input dataset and if focus is to assess specific stress, and interaction of plant genetics to soil and environmental conditions than crop model is very useful tool.     

Effect of heat treatment on dynamic properties of selected rock types taken from the Salt Range in Pakistan

Temperature is one of the variables that influence the elasto-plastic behavior and integrity of rock outcrops. Fluctuations in temperature can trigger alteration of some of the mineral properties and impact the brittle-plastic transition. Initiation and propagation of thermally induced tension cracks tend to weaken most rock types. The principal goal of this study was to anticipate impacts of thermal stress-strain cycles on the dynamic response of representative rock units exposed in the Khewra Gorge of the Salt Range Punjab of Pakistan. Ten types of sedimentary rock units were sampled, including marl, dolomite, three types of limestone, and five different sandstones exhibiting varying characteristics in outcrop. Boulder specimens were collected from the field and transported to the laboratory to prepare 50 drill cores that could be subjected to thermal cycling between 50 and 200 °C in increments of 50 °C. Room temperature core samples were tested using an Erudite resonance frequency meter to measure their Q-factors and the resonance frequency (F_r) at an applied loading frequency of 7 KHz with 0.01 V output voltage. Results suggest that thermal cycling tends to reduce the dynamic Young’s modulus (E_d) and Q-factor. Other parameters, such as damping ratio (ξ), specific damping capacity (Ψ), and loss factor (?) appeared to increase with increasing temperature cycles, likely as a result of developing thermally induced tensile fractures. The resultant values of the null hypothesis (t-critical and t-stats) suggests that the null hypothesis can be discarded because there was no observable difference between the measured and expected values for the cores tested. The observations and data emanating from this study might be useful in designing low-level radioactive waste landfills, nuclear waste repositories, and deep underground excavations where the increased temperature could alter the mechanical behavior of the parent rock mass.     

中国夏季气候对植被覆盖的影响:1982～2001(英文)

In this paper, we apply lagged correlation analysis to study the effects of vegetation cover on the summer climate in different zones of China, using NOAA/AVHRR normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data during the time period from 1982 to 2001 and climate data of 365 meteorological stations across China (precipitation from 1982 to 2001 and temperature from 1982 to 1998). The results show that there are positive correlations between spring NDVI and summer climate (temperature and precipitation) in m...     

春季我国不同纬度河口浮游动物群落变化趋势

根据2010-2012年春季由南向北河口海域：北仑河口、九龙江口、瓯江口、长江口和灌河口的浮游动物调查资料;通过比较不同纬度河口浮游动物群落的生物多样性指数（H''）、物种更替率（R）和群落相似系数（S）;探讨了河口浮游动物群落特征沿着不同纬度变化的趋势。结果表明;自南向北5个河口可以划分为3个不同的浮游动物区系。北仑河口和九龙江口为南部亚热带区系;位于亚热带海域;以亚热带种为主;H''分别为1.01和2.18;两河口之间R值为65.52%;S值为51.28%;瓯江口和长江口为中部过渡区系;位于亚热带和温带过渡海域;亚热带种和暖温带种是主要出现的种类;H''分别为1.31和1.86;两河口之间R值为58.33%;S值为58.82%;灌河口单独为北部温带区系;位于温带海域;暖温带种是主要出现的种类;H''值为1.19;与其余河口物种更替率均高于80.00%;群落相似系数均低于32.00%;表明群落结构由南到北的变化非常显著。线性回归结果表明：我国不同河口之间浮游动物的物种更替率与纬度差（两河口所处纬度的差值;δN）呈正相关关系（R=0.026ΔN+0.608;p=0.002）;群落相似系数与纬度差呈负相关关系（S=0.034ΔN+0.578;p=0.001）。春季;我国不同纬度河口浮游动物群落结构的变化;主要是因为影响各河口的水温和水团存在较大差别所致。     

巨型翼龙类能够飞行吗？

Many pterodactyloids had wingspans that vastly exceed those of any other flying animals, living or extinct. Ornithocheiroids and neoazhdarchidans were particularly large pterosaurs that regularly attained wingspans over 4 m. Certain members of these groups – Pteranodontia and Azhdarchidae – attained the largest wingspans of any pterosaurs, making them the largest flying animals known.     

Floods: impacts on livelihood,economic status and poverty in the north-west region of Pakistan

Natural Hazards - Climate change-induced floods have diversified effects on the physical and economic system of the dwelling societies. These effects mainly hit agricultural livelihood and...     

Diatom-derived palaeoconductivity estimates for Lake Awassa, Ethiopia: evidence for pulsed inflows of saline groundwater

A 6,500-year diatom stratigraphy has been used to infer hydrochemical changes in Lake Awassa, a topographically closed oligosaline lake in the Ethiopian Rift Valley. Conductivity was high from ~6400-6200 BP, and from 5200-4000 BP, with two brief episodes of lower conductivity during the latter period. Although the timing of the conductivity changes is similar to the timing of lake-level change in the nearby Zwai-Shalla basin, their directions are the reverse of that expected from a climatic cause. Dissolution of the tephras which precede both phases of high conductivity cannot explain the increases in salinity, because rhyolitic tephras are only sparingly soluble. Instead, the pulsed input of groundwater made saline by the reaction of silicate minerals and volcanic glass with carbonic acid, formed from the solution of carbon dioxide degassed from magma under the Awassa Caldera, is suggested as a plausible mechanism for the observed change in lake chemistry. Diatom-inferred hydrochemistry cannot therefore be used to reconstruct climate change in Lake Awassa.     

Simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation for tidal models

The Dutch continental shelf model (DCSM) is a shallow sea model of entire continental shelf which is used operationally in the Netherlands to forecast the storm surges in the North Sea. The forecasts are necessary to support the decision of the timely closure of the moveable storm surge barriers to protect the land. In this study, an automated model calibration method, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) is implemented for tidal calibration of the DCSM. The method uses objective function evaluations to obtain the gradient approximations. The gradient approximation for the central difference method uses only two objective function evaluation independent of the number of parameters being optimized. The calibration parameter in this study is the model bathymetry. A number of calibration experiments is performed. The effectiveness of the algorithm is evaluated in terms of the accuracy of the final results as well as the computational costs required to produce these results. In doing so, comparison is made with a traditional steepest descent method and also with a newly developed proper orthogonal decomposition-based calibration method. The main findings are: (1) The SPSA method gives comparable results to steepest descent method with little computational cost. (2) The SPSA method with little computational cost can be used to estimate large number of parameters.     

基于静稳天气下气球探空实验的中国沙漠地区沙尘气溶胶的垂直分布（英文）

塔克拉玛干沙漠是亚洲沙尘气溶胶的重要源地。为探讨塔克拉玛干地区沙尘气溶胶的理化特性与时空变化,研究其环境与气候效应,本文分析了四个季节在中国敦煌(塔克拉玛干沙漠内)取得的探空气球观测数据,包括气溶胶的数浓度、粒径分布、质量浓度及在西风主导下的水平输送通量。气溶胶数浓度的垂直廓线显示,来自沙漠地区的矿物粒子对局地环境与气候有重要影响,且所有季节都存在长距离输送。粒子谱分布显示局地有大量粗粒子输入。结果说明,源于塔克拉玛干沙漠的沙尘气溶胶的背景输送有着重要的科学意义,需进一步研究其对东亚和西太平洋地区环境与气候的影响。